This spring there seems to have been an explosion of positive employment news that’s left skeptics wondering, “Is this news too good to be true?” and job seekers crying foul. 

While we are not out of the woods yet, President Obama was cautiously optimistic in a recent radio address. “Even as we have come a long way, we still have a ways to go,” Obama said.  “No matter what the economic statistics say, I won’t be satisfied until folks who need work can find good jobs.  After a recession that stole 8 million jobs, this is going take some time.”

Considering some of the most recent indicators that the economy and employment are improving, one can’t help but be hopeful:

  • For the third consecutive quarter, more employers are projecting they will increase headcount in the next three months while fewer employers are expecting staff cuts, according to CareerBuilder’s Q2 2010 Job Forecast. Twenty-three percent of employers plan to add full-time, permanent headcount in the second quarter while 8 percent plan to downsize staffs. Looking at actual hiring for the second quarter in 2009, 18 percent of employers reported they had hired full-time, permanent staff while 17 percent reported they had decreased staff.
  • In its April 2010 Industry Survey, the National Association of Business Economics increased job creation for the first time in two years. The share of respondents expecting their firms to add employees over the coming six months rose to 37 percent, up from 29 percent in January’s survey. The percentage of firms cutting jobs moved lower — from 28 percent in January to 13 percent in April. “After more than two years of job losses, job creation increased in the first quarter of 2010, suggesting a better outlook for hiring over the next six months,” said William Strauss, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • In April, Moody’s Economy.com reported that, “based on data through February, 205 metro areas nationwide appear to be in recovery, 21 more than in January. By population size, the largest metro areas to move into recovery over the month (January – February) were Santa Ana, Calif., Nassau N.Y. and San Jose, Calif. Smaller metro areas are more likely to be in recovery at this point than larger ones; although more than half of all U.S. metro areas appear to be recovering, they represent only 41 percent of total metropolitan gross domestic product.”

Jobs of the future

This map from DismalScientist.com shows states that are moderating and recovering from the recession.

Unfortunately, it’s not expected to be smooth sailing when we come out on the other side of the recession. As difficult as it may be to believe given today’s still shaky employment situation, economists are projecting a labor shortage in the near future.

“By 2018, with no change in current labor force participation rates or immigration rates and an expected return to healthy economic growth, we will have more jobs than people to fill them,” wrote Barry Bluestone, Dean of the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University, and Mark Melnik, Deputy Director for Research at the Boston Redevelopment Authority in their report “After the Recovery: Help Needed.”

The report, which was sponsored by MetLife Foundation and Civic Ventures, a think tank on boomers, work and social purpose, predicts that within the next eight years there could be at least 5 million potential job vacancies in the United States, nearly half of them (2.4 million) in social sector jobs in education, health care, government and nonprofit organizations, assuming a return to healthy economic growth and no change in immigration or labor force participation rates.

The report identified 15 jobs that will provide the largest number of potential new encore career opportunities in the coming decade.   

  1. Business operations specialists Current U.S. salary: $44,522**
    Total job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 1,609,000*
  2. Child-care workers Current U.S. salary: $24,354
    Total job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 532,1000
  3. Clergy Current U.S. salary: $51,746
    Total job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 217,700
  4. General and operations managers Current U.S. salary: $94,706
    Total job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 502,200
  5. Home health aidesTotal job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 552,700Current U.S. salary: $27,345
  6. Licensed practical and vocational nursesTotal job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 391,300Current U.S. salary: $44,738 for LPNs; $39,272 for vocational nurses
  7. Nursing aides, orderlies and attendantsTotal job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 422.3Current U.S. salary: $30,494 for nursing aides; $33,822 for orderlies; $24,695 for attendants
  8. Medical assistants  Current U.S. salary: $35,986
    Total job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 217,800
  9. Medical and health service managers Current U.S. salary: $39,956
    Total job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 99,400
  10. Personal and home care aides Current U.S. salary: $27,345
    Total job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 477,800
  11. Receptionists and information clerksTotal job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 480,200Current U.S. salary: $30,887
  12. Registered nursesTotal job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 1,039,000Current U.S. salary: $61,423
  13. Social and human service assistantsTotal job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 153,900Current U.S. salary: $34,324
  14. TeachersTotal job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 2,676,500Current U.S. salary: $54,273 for all; $35,810 for elementary; $47,603 for high school; $68,456 for postsecondary
  15. Teacher assistants Current U.S. salary: $24,429
    Total job openings due to growth and replacement needs: 412,700

*Total needs over the entire 2008-18 period according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_102.htm)
**Average annual salary according to www.CBsalary.com

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